The effect of exchange rate changes on Japanese consumption exports

This paper investigates how exchange rates affect Japanese exports. This is difficult because many of Japan's exports are used to produce goods for re-export. An appreciation in the importing country that decreases exports can decrease its imported inputs from Japan. To avoid this bias we examine consumption exports. Using a panel dataset of Japan's consumption exports to 17 countries over the 1988–2009 period, we find exchange rate elasticities of about one. These results indicate that the large swings in the value of the yen over the last decade have caused large swings in the volume of Japanese exports.     

A spatio-temporal model of house prices in the USA

This paper provides an empirical analysis of changes in real house prices in the USA using State level data. It examines the extent to which real house prices at the State level are driven by fundamentals such as real per capita disposable income, as well as by common shocks, and determines the speed of adjustment of real house prices to macroeconomic and local disturbances. We take explicit account of both cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity. This allows us to find a cointegrating relationship between real house prices and real per capita incomes with coefficients (1,−1)$(1,-1)$, as predicted by the theory. We are also able to identify a significant negative effect for a net borrowing cost variable, and a significant positive effect for the State level population growth on changes in real house prices. Using this model we then examine the role of spatial factors, in particular, the effect of contiguous states by use of a weighting matrix. We are able to identify a significant spatial effect, even after controlling for State specific real incomes, and allowing for a number of unobserved common factors. We do, however, find evidence of departures from long run equilibrium in the housing markets in a number of States notably California, New York, Massachusetts, and to a lesser extent Connecticut, Rhode Island, Oregon and Washington State.     

The welfare effect of tariff rate reductions in a many country world

Consider a two-commodity n-country model without inferior goods where import tariffs are the only trade barriers. In this paper we establish that the world's welfare is improved if the country with the highest tariff rate unilaterally reduce its rate to the level of the second highest country or if all the countries of the world reduce tariff rates proportionally. The second rule serves as a theoretical justification of the Kennedy and Tokyo Round Tariff Reductions.     

A Generalization of Continuity and Convexity Conditions for Correspondences in Economic Equilibrium Theory

Fixed-point theorems for multi-valued mappings and economic equilibrium existence theorems are generalized from the viewpoint that the continuity and/or convexity assumptions on a mapping may be replaced by weaker local conditions on the vector field defined by the mapping. The generalization gives us natural conditions on individual (possibly non-ordered) preferences or aggregated demand behaviours so that we may obtain several extensions of recent results in social and game-theoretic equilibrium theories.
JEL Classification Numbers: C60, C62, C72, D50, D51.     

HOW LONG SHOULD WE STAY IN EDUCATION IF ABILITY IS SCREENED?

We examine how ability‐screening affects demand for education and the shape of an optimal education system. Explicitly incorporating gradual screening by education into the model, we illustrate how individuals of different abilities decide to stay in education or drop out. Gradual screening induces low‐ability individuals to receive over‐education, reducing the net benefit obtained from education by society as a whole, as well as such individuals. A mixed education system, in which public education is provided before private education, is superior to a wholly private system, in terms of both efficiency and equity, because it reduces the over‐education of low‐ability individuals.     

Founders’ human capital and external knowledge sourcing: Exploring the absorptive capacity of start-up firms

ABSTRACT

This study highlights the importance of founders’ human capital on firms’ absorptive capacity for explaining the external knowledge sourcing (licensing-in and joint R&D) of start-up firms, using panel data from original questionnaire surveys conducted in Japan. The results of a probit model with an endogenous regressor show that firms managed by founders with a high level of specific human capital, measured as prior innovation experience and industry-specific work experience, tend to engage in external knowledge sourcing because of their superior absorptive capacity. The findings indicate that this type of human capital also promotes research and development (R&D) investment. Contrariwise, this study finds that firms managed by founders with a high level of general human capital, measured as educational attainment, tend to invest more in R&D, which enhances their absorptive capacity and thereby promotes external knowledge sourcing. Finally, the implications of these findings are discussed from the perspective of public policy.     

Democracy and the Variability of Economic Performance

Sah (1991) conjectured that more centralized societies should have more volatile economic performances than less centralized ones. We show in this paper that this is true both for cross–country and within–country variability in growth rates. It is also true for some measures of policies. Finally, we show that both the best and worst performers in terms of growth rates are more likely to be autocracies. We argue that the evidence in the paper is consistent with the theoretical implications in Sah and Stiglitz (1991) and Rodrik (1999a).     

Indonesia After the Asian Crisis*

Indonesia was deeply affected by the 1997–1998 crisis, more so than its East Asian neighbors. Its economic contraction was deeper and more prolonged. It was the only one to experience a (temporary) loss of macroeconomic control. It also suffered “twin crises,” in the sense that its serious economic and financial problems were accompanied by regime collapse. Consequently, recovery was a slow and complex process, as new institutions had to be created, and old ones reformed under successive short‐lived administrations. But this process is largely over. The directly elected president with a strong popular mandate is in power. The new institutional framework for economic policy‐making is in place. Macroeconomic stability has been restored. Although growth has yet to return to pre‐crisis levels, by 2004 per capita income and poverty incidence had recovered to levels prevailing in the mid‐1990s, and in the circumstances economic recovery has arguably proceeded about as quickly as could reasonably have been expected.     

The spirit of capitalism, stock market bubbles and output fluctuations

This paper presents a representative agent model in which stock market bubbles cause output fluctuations. Assuming that utility depends directly on wealth, we show that stock market bubbles arise if the marginal utility of wealth does not decline to zero as wealth goes to infinity. Bubbles can affect output positively or negative depending on whether the production function exhibits increasing or decreasing returns to scale. In sunspot equilibria, the bursting of a bubble is followed by a sharp decline in output one period later. Various numerical examples are given to illustrate the behavior of stochastic bubbles and the relationship between bubbles and output.